Pathfinder Strategic Services

You can help reduce and ultimately end war.

A quick glance at the news and even the mild photos from the world’s conflict zones tells you that traditional solutions to armed conflicts are not working. Why is that, how bad is it, what can we do about it, is it really feasible to reduce or end war, and what happens if we don’t? Let’s answer those questions. 

How bad is it?

• The number of people killed in wars has grown 3X each century for the last 300 years. The number of people killed in the wars started in the first decade of this century is over 4.4X the same period last century.
• Today there are 51 armed conflicts around the world, 24% more than we had 25 years ago.
• Wars are now costing us $14,300 billion each year. World War 2 cost $2,900 billion / year (in today's money).
• The cost per person killed in World War 2 was $220,000 (in today’s money); it now costs $79,000,000 for every person killed in war, an average yearly increase of 8.9% since 1945.

So yes, it’s bad, and getting worse. Where is it headed?

We are on a path to killing over 500 million people this century. It’s difficult to believe, because most of us live in peace (but look at the graph on the home page of our website). Then add new resource shortages – 40% water shortage by 2030, and 60% more food needed by 2050. 500m dead is consistent with the UN population projections (see our website page "Our Addiction To War").

With over 500 million dead, at least another billion or more wounded, others starving and/or disease ridden, and insufficient resources to sustain life for everyone, modern societies will go into a state of rapid decline. If we make 45,000 body bags a day, every day, for the next 30 years, we still won’t have enough body bags. Advances in warfare mean North America will no longer be protected by its oceans.

We live in an age where $1.5bn has been committed to expanding childhood immunization, $3bn to eradicate all disease, $10bn to colonize Mars (all three are non-government initiatives), and $1,000bn to upgrade the US nuclear arsenal, but where are the innovative efforts to end war? If we stay on our current path, all other major endeavors will become irrelevant - the focus will shift to raw survival and saving societies everywhere from the ashes. War itself has become the biggest threat to everyone's national security.

Why is it so bad and getting worse? The central problem is that the world has become so complex that we can’t predict outcomes in international affairs the way we could 300 years ago. Yet we still largely use the same methods we did back then to try to predict outcomes. Sound decisions in every aspect of life are based on sound predictions. Wrong predictions always cause bad decisions. Trying to predict international affairs in your head now is like trying to run a global corporation without computers or software – something no one in their right mind would try to do.

We clearly need some real innovation in finding solutions to armed conflicts. We won’t find this innovation in government (too many think going to war is good politics); in the UN (the world’s largest committee); or traditional peace movements (who protest rather than devise solutions).

Fighting wars is not basic human nature. If it were, most combat veterans wouldn’t have PTSD, with many of them committing suicide. Human nature is people doing what they believe to be in their own best interests. If a country is attacked, they are going to defend themselves. Long term we don’t need to stop people from fighting wars; we need to stop them from starting wars. We need to stop terrorists from drawing us into more endless wars which only serve their goals. We will have around 125 new wars to avoid over the next 25 years while we also solve the current 51 armed conflicts. The challenge is finding workable solutions to each dispute, ultimately before they get violent. If it’s feasible for us to cure 30,000 diseases this century (over 350 a year), then surely, with our survival depending upon it, we can solve 150 to 200 disputes during the next 25 years.

My name is Phil Heenan. I established Pathfinder Strategic Services as an independent non-profit organization with the goal of eliminating war within 25 years. I believe we can eliminate war. Why 25 years? It is achievable, and in 30 years or less World War 3 may be underway. If we don’t start finding new solutions now, we simply won’t have time to get off our current path.

We need viable solutions based on sound predictions, and then we need to convince those in authority of the benefits of those solutions. Part of our approach is the use of predictive software, which has already proven 90% accurate in making predictions in international affairs, and continually improving the accuracy of these predictions.

Every $10 spent in reducing war with a solutions-based approach can save a life. Maybe even your own. What value do you put on your life, or the lives of your children?

Think of a world of massive destruction in which one in every five people are killed or wounded. Think of the good we can do with the $14,000 billion saved every year from not fighting wars. You get to choose the world you want to live in. Please consider supporting our efforts to find new solutions to reduce and end war. And please tell others about our efforts.